I have presented at the Midwest Conference on forecast models used in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. My claim is that the models in general overestimated of the vote for the Democrats.
I am currently looking at the older Richardson model of defense spending. I am finding several parameters in the model are insignificant.
||Article 'Statewide Races in Maryland: Unusual beginnings of a new era in Electoral politics?' in "Beyond Boundaries: A New Structure of Ambition in African American Politics" Georgia Persons, editor The National Political Science Review: pages 99-110. New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Publishers. 2009. |
|| Republicans won a statewide contest in Maryland by being concerned about the African American vote, but not winning even a small fraction of that vote.|
|| "Was Recent Afghan Policy Driven by Domestic Considerations." Mediterranean Quarterly: A Journal of Global Issues. Vol 23 #2 (Spring 2012): 64-76.|
|| A significant component of President Obama's Afghan policy in his first term can be explained by domestic considerations.|
|| "Should More Polls Be Interpreted as Too Close to Call." PS: Political Science and Politics.: Vol 46 #2 (April 2013): 329-332. |
|| The true size of the difference in support of political candidates is generally less than what is typically reported in polls. The hypothesis is confirmed by looking at some polling data.|
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