Michael Kalu Mba

Central Bank of Nigeria
Statistics Department

Statistics Department (Floor 9D), Central Bank of Nigeria HQ
Central Business District
Abuja, Outside of Canada/United States
Nigeria
0187
mikemba2203@gmail.com

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Impact Assessment of an Entrepreneurship Development Program using Randomized Control Trial (RCT)

Citation:
Mba, M.K. (2003). An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Black Market Premium: Evidence from Nigeria. Paper presented at the course on Macroeconomic Policy Design and Analysis by NCEMA Ibadan, Nigeria, September 11.
Abstract: The widening gap of the premium existing between the black market rate and the official rate in the Nigerian foreign exchange market has become a source of concern to monetary authorities. The premium, from various studies in other developing countries, has been found to have a positive relationship with the stock of domestic monetary assets measured in dollars and the interest parity differential and negatively influenced by the official real exchange rate and level of exports. This study will assess the trend of the premium and utilize the error correction modeling approach to examine the influence of these macroeconomic variables on the premium in Nigeria since the liberalization of the country’s foreign exchange market. The result of the model supported the earlier hypothesis. The premium were found to be positively influenced by the level of domestic monetary assets measured in dollars and the interest parity differential and negatively influenced by the official real exchange rate and the level of exports both in the long run and in the short run. The adjustment rate of the premium was found to be less than 4 percent while a month lag of the premium was also found to have positive significant influence. This captures the speculative activities, which dominate the black markets in Nigeria.
Citation:
Essien, S.N., Agboegbulem, N.T.I., Mba, M.K., & Onumonu, O.G. (2016). An Empirical Analysis of the Macroeconomic Impact of Public Debt in Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 7(1), 125 – 145.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of public sector borrowings on prices, interest rates, and output in Nigeria. It utilized a Vector Autoregressive framework, the Granger causality test, impulse response, and variance decomposition of the various innovations to study the impact. It found that shock to external debt stock increases prime lending rate, but with a lag. However, the level of external and domestic debt over the period of this study had no significant impact on the general price level and output.
URL: http://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2016/SD/An%20Empirical%20Analysis%20of%20the%20Macroeconomic%20Impact%20of%20Public%20Debt%20in%20Nigeria.pdf

Substantive Focus:
Economic Policy PRIMARY
Governance SECONDARY

Theoretical Focus:
Policy Analysis and Evaluation PRIMARY

Keywords

ECONOMIC POLICY POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY EVALUATION NIGERIAN ECONOMY ECONOMETRICS CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA MONETARY POLICY IN NIGERIA QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS