Aileen San Pablo Baviera

University of the Philippines Diliman
Asian Center

GT-Toyota Asian Cultural Center
University of the Philippines
Diliman, Quezon City
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I am currently looking at regional security in East Asia and interactions involving China and major powers, as well as between China and Southeast Asia. More specifically, I focus on the South China Sea territorial and maritime jurisdiction disputes and security architecture building. ASEAN regionalism and political-security community building is also an area of interest.

Baviera, Aileen S.P. 2016. “The Philippines and the South China Sea Dispute: Security Interests and Perspectives”. Ian Storey and Lin Cheng-yi, eds. The South China Sea Dispute: Navigating Diplomatic and Strategic Tensions (pp. 161-185). Singapore: ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.
Abstract: The Philippines is engaged in hedging against the possibility of an aggressive China, and thus relies on whatever deterrent effect its alliance with the United States might have on Beijing's behavior. As with other countries that have developed close economic ties with China but remain wary of its growing military strength and assertive maritime posture, the Philippines must tread a fine line between its desire to have a cooperative relationship with China and its fear of Chinese domination.
Baviera, Aileen S.P. 2011. "Accommodation with Hedging: Southeast Asia's Changing Perspectives towards China". Herbert S. Yee, ed. China's Rise - Threat or Opportunity (pp. 176-190) London: Routledge.
Abstract: The chapter examines recent developments in ASEAN-China relations and how these have shaped ASEAN states' perceptions of and alignment strategies toward China. It argues that rather than being limited in strategic choices to simply bandwagoning with China or balancing against it, ASEAN states' posture can be better described as a much more nuanced "accommodation with hedging."
Baviera, Aileen. 2015. “Changing Dynamics in Philippines-China-US Relations: Impact of the South China Sea Disputes”. Mingjiang Li and Kalyan M. Kemburi, eds. New Dynamics in US-China Relations: Contending for the Asia Pacific (pp. 252-256) London: Routledge.
Abstract: How does the Philippines view its relations with US and China? How does it perceive US–China strategic relations, specifically during the period of US rebalancing and the growth of Chinese power? Has Manila played any role in shaping US–China relations? What kind of US–China relationship does the Philippines prefer or expect to see and what can it do for the realization of this vision? This chapter aims to address these questions by placing them in a broad historical context and subsequently focusing the analysis on more recent geopolitical developments in the South China Sea. The South China Sea issue had placed the Philippines’ territorial and maritime interests at odds with China, whereas its military alliance with the United States raises the possibility of either Philippine entanglement in a US–China conflict or a US entanglement in a conflict between the Philippines and China.
Baviera, Aileen S.P. “2009. Waltzing with Goliath: Philippines’ Engagement with China in Uncharted Waters”. Tang Shiping, Li Mingjiang and Amitav Acharya, eds. Living with China: Regional States and China through Crises and Turning Points (pp. 173-192) New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Abstract: The chapter explores Philippines-China relations by presenting a brief overview of relations, then traces and explains the transformation of ties by looking at how the global and strategic environment, bilateral interactions, and domestic political imperatives in each of the two states helped shape and reshape the ways both sides perceive and relate to each other. It examines two case studies that illustrate these dynamics: territorial disputes in the South China Sea and illegal fishing by Chinese fishermen in Philippine waters.
Baviera, Aileen S.P. 2013. “China-ASEAN Conflict and Cooperation in the South China Sea: Managing Power Asymmetry”. The Study of National Security at 50: Reawakenings. A Golden Anniversary Publication of the National Defense College of the Philippines (pp. 202-225) Quezon City: National Defense College of the Philippines.
Abstract: This exploratory study examines how the rise of China has transformed the territorial disputes over the Paracels and Spratlys in the South China Sea (SCS) from relatively low-level bilateral tensions into a litmus test for relations between a big power and its smaller neighbors. It lays down some theoretical arguments based on the concept of power asymmetry, developed by Brantly Womack. Asymmetry, Womack says, “inevitably creates differences in risk perception, attention and interactive behavior between states, and … can lead to a vicious circle of systemic misperception.” The paper then tries to address the following question: How do Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam as relatively smaller or weaker states manage their respective claims in relation to great power China? Malaysia’s strategy may be described as one of accommodation and enmeshment, whereas Vietnam is engaged in a complex mix of internal balancing, internationalization and assurance-seeking. For the Philippines, the strategy is one that relies on institutionalism and external soft balancing.
Baviera, Aileen. 2013. “Territorial and Maritime Jurisdiction Disputes in East Asia: Comparing Bilateral and Multilateral Approaches” . William T. Tow and Brendan Taylor, eds. Bilateralism, Multilateralism and Asia-Pacific Security: Contending Cooperation (pp. 100-114). London: Routledge.
Abstract: The chapter explores various bilateral and multilateral security approaches to territorial and maritime jurisdiction disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, having in mind the conflation of these disputes with broader maritime safety and security concerns, and the influence of China's rise on regional security.
Baviera, Aileen. 2014. "An ASEAN Perspective on the South China Sea: China-ASEAN Collision or China-US Hegemonic Competition?". Pavin Chachavalpongpun, ed. Entering Uncharted Waters? ASEAN and the South China Sea (pp. 88-111) Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
Abstract: The South China Sea disputes can be described as the confluence of 3 problematiques: as a contest for sovereignty and control over maritime zones and their resources, as a microcosm of the security dilemmas in China-ASEAN relations, and as the locus of strategic navigational routes vulnerable to various types of threats. China plays a pivotal role in all three aspects, respectively as the most expansive claimant, as the most ambitious and modernizing military power, and as a potential challenger to US naval primacy in the region. The paper examines how the disputes are at risk of becoming embroiled in the brewing strategic competition between China and the United States.

Substantive Focus:
Defense and Security SECONDARY
International Relations PRIMARY

Theoretical Focus:
Agenda-Setting, Adoption, and Implementation SECONDARY
Policy Analysis and Evaluation PRIMARY